Building a New In-Game Win Probability Model for American Soccer Analysis
Photo by Emerson Vieira on Unsplash.Across recent weeks, we’ve set out to improve the performance of our in-game win probability model, while:
starting to take each team’s strength into account, based on its performance in prior games; and
introducing more fluctuation between goal-scoring events, to better reflect teams’ chance creation throughout the game.
In this article, we’ll cover our methods for accomplishing those goals, how we plan to use this new and improved model, and how deconstructing that model can teach us more about the conditions under which goal-scoring events occur.
Read the remainder of this post on American Soccer Analysis.